Did Social Media Affect Rookie Cancellations?

The slaughter of the rookie television series on the major broadcast networks is always rough… there usually aren't too many surprises, but many people cross fingers for something that doesn't make the cut. More than ever, the market share isn’t accounting for the actual popularity of a program, between delayed viewing, internet viewing, and illegal downloading/streaming, to name a few alternatives. The latest ratings technology is trying hard to account for these things, but it has been speculated (and even admitted in some cases) that social media has been playing a larger factor. PR departments have actors live-tweet alongside episode airings, networks post on Facebook/Twitter/Instagram how things are going on the set, and some series even have accounts on such websites as Pinterest these days.

All of this led me to be interested in how the social media popularity of the new 2013-2014 shows correlated with their respective cancellations and renewals. After all, with the new pilot season upon us, I'd love to have more renewal prediction tools available! So, I looked up all of last season's Facebook Likes, though this is a flawed system. First, Like numbers have changed since the fate of the shows was announced - people have dropped following shows with no futures and jumped on bandwagons for those that do. Two, it doesn't account for the interaction on these shows - just because a page has a lot of Likes doesn't mean those folks are actively engaged with the Page. That said, the below counts are current as of 8/14/14, and are shown in descending order, with comedies and dramas in separate lists. The networks renewed blue shows and canceled red ones.

Comedies
Super Fun Night (ABC Comedy): 332,987 likes
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (FOX Comedy): 300,545 likes
The Michael J. Fox Show (NBC Comedy): 274,448 likes
The Goldbergs (ABC Comedy): 241,529 likes
Dads (FOX Comedy): 126,785 likes
About a Boy (NBC Comedy): 126,624 likes
Mom (CBS Comedy): 121,080 likes
The Crazy Ones (CBS Comedy): 117,236 likes
Sean Saves the World (NBC Comedy): 106,069 likes
Mixology (ABC Comedy): 103,257 likes
Surviving Jack (FOX Comedy): 103,103 likes
Enlisted (FOX Comedy): 71,481 likes
Trophy Wife (ABC Comedy): 70,522 likes
Growing Up Fisher (NBC Comedy): 63,564 likes
The Millers (CBS Comedy): 61,076 likes
Undateable (NBC Comedy): 59,952 likes
Welcome to the Family (NBC Comedy): 54,704 likes
Friends with Better Lives (CBS Comedy): 48,611 likes
Back in the Game (ABC Comedy): 41,281 likes
We Are Men (CBS Comedy): 7,229 likes
Murder Police (unaired FOX Comedy): 731 likes
Us and Them (unaired FOX Comedy): 0 likes - I don't believe a Facebook page exists.

Dramas
The Originals (CW Drama): 5,304,230 likes
Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC Drama): 3,889,806 likes
Sleepy Hollow (FOX Drama): 1,502,482 likes
The Blacklist (NBC Drama): 1,226,668 likes
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (ABC Drama): 1,139,105 likes
Dracula (NBC Drama): 865,459 likes 
Chicago PD (NBC Drama): 771,687 likes
The Tomorrow People (CW Drama): 696,126 likes
Reign (CW Drama): 681,041 likes
The Resurrection (ABC Drama): 537,134 likes
Believe (NBC Drama): 533,560 likes
Almost Human (FOX Drama): 472,236 likes
The 100 (CW Drama): 444,959 likes
Star-Crossed (CW Drama): 295,203 likes
Intelligence (CBS Drama): 230,012 likes
Betrayal (ABC Drama): 195,527 likes 
Gang Related (FOX Drama): 195,157 like
The Night Shift (NBC Drama): 121,866 likes
Hostages (CBS Drama): 111,322 likes
Crisis (NBC Drama): 102,275 likes
Ironside (NBC Drama): 81,121 likes 
Crossbones (NBC Drama): 54,503 likes 
Rake (FOX Drama): 37,806 likes
Killer Women (ABC Drama): 34,044 likes
Mind Games (ABC Drama): 31,732 likes
Reckless (CBS Drama): 11,580 likes (fate not yet officially announced)
Lucky 7 (ABC Drama): 9,074 likes

So, what does this all mean? There is a correlation for the most part, but you can't bet on these things just from Facebook Likes. The highest-liked comedy of the year was Super Fun Night by 30,000+ fans, but it wasn't renewed. Similarly, The Michael J. Fox Show and Dads had more Likes than FOUR of the six comedies that the networks renewed. That one is probably easy to explain, though: both had very likeable, famous people attached (Michael J. Fox and Seth MacFarland, respectively), so there was likely an initial rally behind the series, but fans just didn't bother to "unlike" the Pages when the shows tanked. Plus The Millers only had about half the Likes of the next-renewed comedy.

In dramas, the CW renewed its top four Liked programs. Over on NBC, The Night Shift has more than 300,000 fewer Likes than the next-closest renewed drama, but it didn't air during the peak season, so it had less competition. The most-Liked canceled FOX show (Almost Human) has 150,000+ more Likes than their only renewed comedy (Brooklyn Nine-Nine).  Actually, I was surprised by how many fewer Facebook fans of comedy there are than of dramas!

The bottom line? You can't make educated guesses across the board based on Facebook Like numbers, though there is still plenty of interesting information there! (Did you see how many Likes The Originals has?!?)

Fun Friday: What the Rich People Watch

Yesterday, AVClub posted an article looking at the socioeconomic demographics of the Nielsen ratings - the top 20 shows watched by the highest-earning households, and the top 20 watched by the lowest-earning households, on average. I was thoroughly amused by which shows were on each list. Let's take a gander, first at what the high-earners watch:

Now, out of the 20 above, I regularly watch 5 of them (The Goldbergs, How I Met Your Mother, The Michael J. Fox Show, Trophy Wife, and The Middle), and occasionally tune in for one more (Shark Tank). Of the others on the list, there are several that I can't stand (Modern Family, Glee, Super Fun Night, and Nashville), and a bunch I've seen but don't care for (Castle, Parks and Rec, New Girl).

Now, at what the low-earners watch:

From this list, I only cover one series for this site: Bob's Burgers, the show with the lowest earners of them all. I watch The Simpsons occasionally, and tried both The Neighbors and Dads, though they weren't my cup of tea. I've seen American Dad and Family Guy in the past, and enjoyed America's Funniest Home Videos back in the early 1990s. The rest? I couldn't care less about.

Now, I don't really trust the Nielsen ratings anyway, so I take all of the information in the above charts with a grain of salt, but I still found it interesting enough to glance through and think about.

What about you - do you tend to watch the shows of the princes or the paupers?

TCA Summer 2013: Sunday

Sunday began with Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, which I had completely forgotten was still around. And, apparently, Meredith Vieira has been hosting it for a decade already. Well, now Cedric the Entertainer is going to pick up the hosting responsibilities, and you can read my highlights on that panel here.

Immediately following was the panel for Trophy Wife, which I was not looking forward to. I originally boiled down the series to "a girl who falls for a twice-divorced man with three bratty kids. She wants to win over the kids and avoid the exes, but it's going to be harder than she thinks." After the panel, I must say that I was a little more taken with the series than before. Apparently the title is supposed to be ironic, and even upon reading the script, Malin Akerman "thought it was so brilliant" and "the complete opposite of a trophy wife." However, the title may come into play as the Kate character encounters various people who view her as such. Plus, Kate is not really replacing the previous "wives" in this situation (Jackie and Diane) completely anyway, as she sometimes teams up with either of the women toward a common enemy (like a teacher). That said, it still may not be the best pilot, as EP Lee Eisenberg pointed out that introducing eight characters in 21 minutes is "very tricky," though the final scene has Kate admit to Bradley that she has no idea what she's doing, and that is an honest moment that may resonate with viewers.

Next was the Executive Session with Paul Lee, which I'll bullet-point for you here, as I thought that most of the questions either didn't receive great answers or weren't the most interesting inquiries.

• Last time Lee spoke at TCA, he talked about the female demographic and its importance to the ABC network. Lee shared that ABC is the Number One women's 18-49 network, and lots of the his "have incredibly empowered women in them." But, shows like S.H.I.E.L.D. and Goldbergs are "constructed to be four-quadrant shows" so women aren't the only focus. He also called ABC "the most upscale network" and mentioned that "we focus on empowered women. We are men-inclusive. We are family-inclusive. And we are highly co-viewed." The journalists in the room mused over the term "co-viewed" a bit, as it's not exactly a familiar word. 
• It would later be discussed further, but when asked about Rebel Wilson's American accent on Super Fun Night, Lee explained that it was Wilson's "choice" to do that, but he thinks that she's "going to be fantastic at it" and is "actually extremely good at it." He also added that "she's so funny and she brings such a presence to everything she does, and she has an in-built fan base who are already very engaged with that show." 
• Regarding Suburgatory, which got renewed yet is not on the fall schedule, Lee has "a little inkling in our mind where that show is going to go back" and that the third season will "bring the show back to all the sort of fish-out-of-water stories that it was originally intended to be." This made me happy, as loyal readers know how much I became disappointed in that series. Still, if I had to guess, I think Suburgatory isn't on the schedule yet because ABC doesn't put a lot of faith in Back in the Game, which is a Wednesday night comedy we'll get to later today... 

Once Upon a Time in Wonderland was next, and I was really looking forward to hearing about that series, as I'm not a big fan of the original, yet was surprised that ABC chose to feature it at Comic-Con over the new drama. I'll be writing more about this one at a later date, so stay tuned.

Following that was Super Fun Night, which still looks horrific. And, after a lunch screening of Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., we had the garbage that is Betrayal. Everyone in the room tweeted about the many similar series that exist on ABC already, including Revenge, Mistresses, and Scandal. I'll be looking at that one in more detail just before the drama is set to premiere.

Two of the ABC series I'm most looking forward to followed, The Goldbergs, which is the family comedy set in the 80s, and Lucky 7, which has seven Queens residents splitting lottery winnings. ABC handed out scratch-offs to accompany that one, with critics winning massages, gas cards, or a junk food gift basket. I have lots to say about these two series and their panels, and will likely cover one over in my Examiner column tomorrow.

Before the much-anticipated Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. panel (where everyone really wanted to hear from Joss Whedon, not just because he's shiny but also because he wasn't going to be at the cocktail reception following), we had Back in the Game, which I initially touted as a Bad News Bears-type series, and the panel really solidified that perspective. It actually made me feel worse for anyone wanting to tune in. I mean, look at these tidbits:

• There are coaches on the show to help the actors if they need it, but "they're actually really athletic," according to EP Mark Cullen. Plus, they need horrible kids to be on the horrible team, so it works out. Maggie Lawson, however, played softball growing up and is good enough that she doesn't need a "stunt thrower."
• Cullen also noted that even though the kids "have two good coaches," the team will "get somewhat better, but they're never going to be good." He later added that "they're not going to win a game all year," making them worse than Charlie Brown's team. So the gimmick to watch this show over others is a kids' baseball team, but it's a horrid at the sport?
• I'm glad that someone asked how the series plans to last more than four years with a Little League team as the backdrop for the comedy,

That's it for Saturday, ABC, and TCA, actually. PBS has the end days of the summer tour, and although we may do some retweets, no major articles are planned for their presentations.

Looking Ahead: ABC's Comedies and Dramas for 2013

What intrigued me most about the shows ABC has decided to try out this fall is that I really needed to see the trailers to make decisions about a good chunk of them. For a large proportion of the new series this year, I've been able to make decisions on the premises and cast/crew alone. This means that ABC did a good job of marketing their programs to me, but they also run the risk of seeming too generic for specific groups to try. I think they have a wide variety of options, but that has its own pros and cons, so who knows.  

I'm looking to try out one of the comedies and two of the dramas, which is low for me when you consider how many of ABC's series I've enjoyed in the past. Which interest you?

COMEDY:
Back in the Game (formerly The Untitled Cullens Project) is about a divorced woman who brings her son along to live with her father. The old man is a former baseball player, but because her son loves the sport, the mother is drawn back into it once again. It sounds a little like The Bad News Bears, and I'm not interested.

The Goldbergs is your average variety family comedy, except it's set in the 1980s. You've got mom, dad, three kids, and grandpa. The youngest is a budding filmmaker, so we see a lot of narration from his point-of-view, much like The Wonder Years. The more I learn about the series, the less I like it, but I'll give it a couple episodes for now.

ABC

Mixology, as you might expect, is set in a Manhattan bar. It's a bit How I Met Your Mother in that the series depicts singles looking for love in a single night. It didn't sound good to me, but the trailer was almost repulsive, so I'm staying far away.

Super Fun Night reminds me a bit of The Weekenders in that it's three ladies concerned only about having a great weekend, or, more specifically, a great Friday night. I didn't even smile at the trailer, and find the premise to be a terrible movie, let alone a disastrous show.

Trophy Wife is about a girl who falls for a twice-divorced man with three bratty kids. She wants to win over the kids and avoid the exes, but it's going to be harder than she thinks. Again, this sounds like a bad movie and nothing more.

DRAMA:
Betrayal is about an affair between a married photographer and a lawyer who is facing off against the photographer's husband in the courtroom. Gag me with a spoon... this is about as off-putting as it gets!

Mind Games (previously Influence) is two brothers using human behavior statistics and psychology to get things to go their way. It's part Psych and part House for starters... if you know how someone will react, you can create illusions all around you. I hate manipulation, so I'm out.

Killer Women is based on an Argentinian series where there's one rough-and-tumble woman in the Texas Rangers who is determined to succeed. Female empowerment aside, this honestly looks really boring.

Lucky 7 is based on a British program where seven coworkers (in Queens for this version) win the lottery. I liked the backstory flashes for the characters enough to give this one a try, though I think I would have approached it differently.

ABC

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (previously S.H.I.E.L.D.) is the Joss Whedon project based on the Marvel Comics' organization, a spinoff from the Avengers film(s). Because I'm a big Marvel fan, I'll try it out, but I've already been rolling my eyes a bit.

Once Upon a Time in Wonderland is the spin-off to the hit Sunday night attraction, Once Upon a Time. The difference here is that it will be told from the perspective of Alice. I don't have any interest in the original, and this one sounds no better.

The Resurrection (previously The Returned) is a bit too creepy for me. The idea is that dead people return from beyond out of nowhere, acting like no time has passed. This only works in a specific town in Missouri, but it reminds me a lot of Alcatraz. I think there's a market for it, but it's not me.

How many of these shows will you be tuning in to try?

[quick links to the other networks: CBS/CW, FOX, NBC.]