Friday, April 12, 2013

Fun Friday: Betting on Renewals and Cancellations

It can be a depressing time of year for a lot of people. We're only a month out from Network Upfronts Week (May 13-16 this year), and although we've already seen many cancellations and heard about many upcoming new pilots, there are still quite a few shows up for renewal, both freshman and returning. Back in January we did a Midseason Checkup on how the first-season scripted shows were doing so far. But, at that point there were still quite a few that hadn't even debuted, so a lot has changed. (and, actually, there still are some shows that have not seen the light of day yet, like Crossbones, Friend Me, The Goodwin Games, Save Me, Family Tools, and Mistresses.) That said, I wanted to go ahead and start predicting how things will go for freshmen series and the older series that this site follows. Again, this only covers the programming on the big five broadcast networks. If a show isn't on this list and you expected it to be, that's because its fate has already been announced, so check here.  
and, not, I didn't try to make the sections near-even, that's just a coincidence.

I think it'll be renewed:
Beauty and the Beast. While the numbers are decent for a series on the CW, there are many cable series that do better. Still, I think it's good enough for the situation. [update: we were right!]
Chicago Fire. Not the highest numbers, but the series is getting a spin-off, so you'd think they'd keep this around for some early publicity, crossovers, etc. [update: we were right!]
Golden Boy. The numbers are decent, but CBS can afford to be picky, so that might work against this drama. Still, the critics are more favorable than not on it, and although it's not my cup of tea, I could see it getting a second chance. [update: we were wrong!] 
Hannibal. For a series about the famed Dr. Lecter, it did not open well, and the second episode did about the same. It could be advantageous that the series does not plan full seasons but just 13-episode installments, and it's hard to make a judgment call after just two airings, but I think NBC could work with this.
How to Live With Your Parents (for the Rest of Your Life). It could be a good fit for ABC, maybe even joining the TGIF lineup if the network could scare up some more family comedies to throw in there. After two episodes, it's still early, but the numbers are decent, even if it does have Modern Family as a lead-in at the moment. [update: we were wrong!]
Last Man Standing. (listed because it's one of the few non-freshman network series we cover that has not yet been renewed/canceled) The numbers are high enough for a renewal, and although I don't think the stories are going anywhere, I think it's a safe show for ABC's Friday night lineup. [update: we were right!]
Malibu Country. The numbers aren't where they could be, but the stories could go far, plus it pairs well following Last Man Standing. [update: we were wrong!]
The Middle. (listed because it's one of the few non-freshman network series we cover that has not yet been renewed/canceled) The numbers are better than last year's and the storylines could easily keep going, so I don't know why this would get canceled. [update: we were right!]
Nashville. The numbers aren't terrible for a 10pm slot, and it got decent critical praise. [update: we were right!]
The Neighbors. The numbers are on the weaker side and it's not a critical favorite, but it's high-concept and fits into the "family" block on Wednesday nights. [update: we were right!]

I think it'll be canceled:
1600 Penn. The numbers are absolutely abysmal, and the comedy packs in too much drama. [update: we were right!]
The Carrie Diaries. The CW operates by slightly different rules, but this series still has weaker numbers than Emily Owens, MD, and that's already been canceled. [update: we were wrong!]
Deception. The numbers are poor and there are two episodes to air that aren't even scheduled at the moment, which is not a good sign. [update: we were right!]
Go On
. The numbers suggest that it just fell too far. Combined with a last-minute timeslot move and the very droll plots, I don't see this going anywhere. [Update: we were right!]
Guys with Kids. The numbers were never great for this one, and it aired against the more-established family comedy block on ABC on Wednesdays. It never even got a full season pickup, so as much as it pains me, I don't think it'll make it. [update: we were right!]
The New Normal. The numbers have been on a downward slope, and I think the stories would be scattered should the series continue. [update: we were right!]
Red Widow. The numbers are dropping, and month-long gap between the last episode and the next won't help anybody. [update: we were right!]
Revolution. The numbers have been falling drastically since the pilot, and it's a bit too high-concept for the show to try and "solve" the problem of the power so soon. [update: we were wrong!]
Vegas. The numbers have been pretty steady, although the move to Friday will keep many guessing as to how the remaining five episodes will do. Still, it's a big-budget show, and although another network might risk another season, CBS may not. [update: we were right!]

what do you think will happen? check out the poll to the right and let us know which series you think will be renewed!
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